Paid $2.5 million in 2008, listed for $1.2 million in 2023

The question of the day is, how much has Alexander Boone agreed to pay Roanoke County schools for the Poage Farm? Right now, that’s the biggest secret in Timesland. Coca-Cola’s closely guarded formula might be less secure.

The 54.5-acre farm is along Bent Mountain Road (U.S. 221) a few miles southwest of Electric Road (Virginia 419).

The sale hasn’t yet closed, but the two parties have inked a purchase agreement. Boone, owner of ABoone Real Estate Inc., and Roanoke County Schools Superintendent Ken Nicely signed it Nov. 4.

My colleague, Jeff Sturgeon, obtained a copy under the Virginia Freedom of Information Act. But the school system redacted the juiciest part — the sales price. They did the same with a 2022 appraisal the county ordered (although some tantalizing hints in that were left unredacted).

Assistant Superintendent Rhonda Stegall argued that disclosing the negotiated price (or the appraisal) before the deal closes “would adversely affect the bargaining or negotiating strategy of the school board.”

I don’t quite understand how, but perhaps that’s possible. Both numbers are exempt from disclosure under FOIA, she said. (The law gives the school system the option to release them, or keep them under wraps.)

And that leaves a pungent mystery, the best kind for a reader contest!

Basically, we’ll crowd-source price predictions from readers, then compare the average of all the guesses to the contract price that’s finally disclosed. That could be as late as July.

So, you should hazard a guess now on how much the Roanoke County School Board will realize from the deal then, assuming it goes through.

Email your numbers to [email protected], by 11:59 p.m. Sunday. Put “farmland” in the subject line. Include your name and locality (which we may publish) and a daytime phone number (which we won’t).

Below we’ll summarize many known facts about the Poage Farm, its sales history, appraisal information, planned utility expansions and so on.

They come from: previous stories in this newspaper; Roanoke County’s Geographic Information System; emails from Roanoke County schools officials; documents obtained via the Virginia Freedom of Information Act; online real-estate listings; the budget for the Western Virginia Water Authority and other sources.

Here you might find one or more clues that prove useful in making a prediction.

1. The 54.5 acres in question was settled by ancestors of the Poage family before the American Revolution. It includes four separate parcels near the intersection of Poage Valley Road and Bent Mountain Road. The farm straddles both roadways.

2. In 2007, the Roanoke County School Board agreed to pay the family $2.5 million cash for the land, as a potential future school site. According to county land records, deals on three of the parcels closed early in 2008. And basically, the family got to remain there and use the land until the county schools needed it. (David Poage is still working it. He needs to vacate in March.)

3. The school system acquired title to the fourth parcel in 2012. It’s 1.5 acres and includes a two-story, circa 1897 farmhouse (renovated in 1967) and 1.5 surrounding acres. Online Roanoke County tax records list the 2012 transaction price as $0. “It’s likely the school system paid additional money in 2012 to get the house[,] elevating the total price above $2.5 million,” Stegall wrote Jan. 31.

4. It’s unclear whether county schools sought a real-estate appraisal for the farm before the school board’s 2007 vote to purchase it. Last week under FOIA, I sought a copy of that appraisal. “The document you requested, appraisals ordered by the school system before they purchased the farm, does not exist as it was not located in the files associated with the purchase of the farm,” Stegall replied. (She added she would continue to look.)

5. At the time of purchase, Martin Misicko oversaw capital projects for Roanoke County schools. Now he has a similar job with Carilion Clinic. Misicko did not respond to voicemail messages I left at on his work phone Tuesday and Wednesday.

6. The need for a new school in southwest Roanoke County never materialized. And in May 2023, the Roanoke County School Board unanimously declared the land “surplus.” No residents spoke on the issue at a public hearing.

7. In September, Poe and Cronk Real Estate Group listed the farm on the real-estate market for the county school system. The asking price was $1.2 million. More often than not, real estate sells for under the listing.

8. Without offering specifics, Boone has said he intends to build “a vibrant new community“ on the land, but will share details later.

9. Although school officials declined to reveal the farm’s total 2022 appraised value, hints were left unredacted in the document Sturgeon obtained under FOIA. It estimated each acre is worth $6,524 to $20,267. That puts the value of all 54.5 acres in a range between $355,000 and $1.1 million.

10. Several factors may limit development on the Poage Farm. For example, roughly 30 of its acres are in a flood plain. And currently, there’s no access to public water or sewers.

11. The Western Virginia Water Authority has budgeted to spend $228,000 in capital expenditures this year to extend a 12-inch water main westward to Back Creek Elementary School. That would make public water accessible to the farm, which is east of the school. Construction is expected to begin in fiscal 2025.

13. The line item in the authority’s capital budget adds a notation: “Indicates authority’s share of partnership with local jurisdiction.” Sarah Baumgardner, spokeswoman for the water authority, said Roanoke County has obligated $3.9 million for the water line extension.

12. What about sewers? “This is a water and sewer extension project,” Baumgardner wrote in an email. But the aforementioned numbers relate to the water line only. “The sewer project was funded only for design in [fiscal year 2023]. Construction has not been funded,” she added.

13. The purchase agreement between county schools and Boone gives him 180 days (until May 7) to examine the property, as well as an option to pull out the deal and reclaim his deposit. (That amount was redacted from the contract, too.)

14. If the deal goes through, the purchase agreement says it “shall” close no later than 60 days after the end of the examination period. That could push the closing into early July, around the Independence Day holiday, give or take a few days. The school system won’t be able to keep the sales price under wraps after closing.

So there you have most of what I’ve learned in recent weeks about this transaction.

Just one of its fascinating aspects is the value of the Poage Farm. The asking price for the land in 2023 was less than half what the Roanoke County School Board paid for it in 2008.

It’s quite unusual for real estate to plummet in value like that over a period 16 years. Usually, it goes in the other direction.

So how much do you think Boone has agreed to pay?

Send me your best guesses by Sunday night, and we’ll revisit with a crowd-sourced number soon.